Milton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

635
FXUS61 KBTV 262339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day as smoke from Canadian
wildfires continues to filter into the northeastern US. Expect
rounds of showers with some embedded thunderstorms to develop
Sunday. Drier and warmer weather will arrive on Monday and last
into Tuesday, with some valley locations seeing heat indices
into the low 90s. The second half of the week will see a pattern
shift towards seasonably cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 201 PM EDT Saturday...Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for
our entire forecast area through this evening. The Air Quality
Alerts for Vermont are in effect until 11 PM tonight, while the
Air Quality Alerts in northern New York are in effect until
midnight tonight. For additional information, please visit the
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation website
at https:/on.ny.gov/nyaqi and/or the Vermont Agency of Natural
Resources web site at https:/dec.vermont.gov/air-quality/local-
air-quality-forecasts.

The lowered air quality is due to wildfire smoke from fires in
Manitoba and Saskatchewan.  Based on HRRR-Smoke forecasts, expecting
some improvement in air quality this afternoon with increased
mixing.  In addition, winds from the southwest will advect in an air
mass with better air quality indices, which will settle over our
area tonight as the brunt of the thicker smoke shifts to our east.

Overnight tonight, an upper-level shortwave will cross the area and
bring showers with some embedded thunderstorms to the southern half
of our forecast area.  Expect the highest precipitation in the
morning hours generally over central and southern Vermont, as well
as over the Adirondacks in NY.  Areas closer to the International
Border will remain mostly dry during the morning hours.  Rainfall in
southern counties will be light to moderate in intensity in the
morning, as supported by precipitable water values rising towards
2.0 inches and warm cloud depths around 12 kft.  Further north,
depth of moisture decreases and intensities will be lighter.

A second round of more conditional scattered showers and
thunderstorms is possible, mainly over eastern NY and western VT.
After the morning showers, if enough destabilization were to occur,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could form as weak
impulses move through the northwesterly flow.  There are several
factors, however, working against widespread development of showers
and thunderstorms. This includes a lack of moisture and lack of
strong low-level convergence (though a weaker surface trough may
suffice). Surface to 500 mb shear is around 25 to 30 knots, which
could support a few more organized storms that could contain some
gusty winds as the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 201 PM EDT Saturday...Monday will be on the warm side
compared to seasonable norms. 850 mb temps will rise into the
upper teens/towards 20 C, supporting surface temperatures in the
mid 80s to low 90s. The main question that remains with regards
to how warm our heat indices will get is just how high afternoon
dewpoints are. Forecast soundings and MOS guidance suggesting
some drier air does mix down during the afternoon hours, but
there remains quite some spread amongst models in just how low
dewpoints get. For now, based on recent verification of similar
setups, have stayed close to the National Blend for dewpoints,
which splits the difference among the NAM and the GFS solutions.
This yields dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, which supports
maximum heat indices Monday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Other
than the warm temperatures, no precipitation is expected during
the day, though PoP chances do increase slightly in the evening
and overnight hours over our northern counties with an
approaching impulse from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...A progressive west/northwest flow
aloft prevails acrs our cwa for Tuesday into Weds with embedded
s/w`s and a series of boundaries. This setup aloft always has to
be watched closely for the potential of strong/severe storms,
especially if timing of s/w energy and cold frnt can interact
with best instability/shear. For now have mention of chance pops
(30-45%) for Tues aftn/evening. Early indications suggest
column is pretty dry which may limit areal coverage of
convection, but as better dynamics arrive, the depth of moisture
increases toward 00z Weds. Sfc based CAPE values look to be in
the 800 to 1500 J/kg range ahead of boundary and s/w energy,
with deep layer shear in the 25 to 40 knot range. Progged 925mb
temps range from 18C SLV to 25C CT River Valley, so
anticipating highs mid 80s northwest cwa to mid 90s se cwa, with
some areas likely approaching heat advisory criteria again. On
Weds another boundary crosses our cwa with deepening mid/upper
lvl trof acrs the northern/central Great Lakes. Progged 925mb
temps are a degree or two cooler, supporting highs upper 70s to
upper 80s. Continued with chc pops for showers/storms associated
with cold frnt and dynamics with approaching/deepening trof. As
large sfc high pres builds from central Canada into the
northern Plains and into the northeast CONUS, much cooler and
drier air advects into our cwa for late Thurs thru the upcoming
weekend. Still some concern about additional Canada wildfire
smoke impacting our region from time to time, especially as the
flow becomes west/northwest on Weds into late week. Temps wl
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with lows mid/upper 30s to
lower 50s near Lake Champlain with comfortable humidity values.
Depending upon bl winds and moisture, potential for valley fog
looks favorable given the large scale synoptic pattern with sfc
high pres overhead for late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR/MVFR through the forecast period under
light southerly flow. BKN high clouds above 150 AGL expected
through 10Z. Areas of haze/wildfire smoke reducing visibilities
in the 5-7sm range through 04-05Z, then lifting out. Scattered
showers move into the region in the 10-17Z time range, mainly
focused across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. As
such, only VCSH/Prob30 for passing light showers mentioned for
most terminals. Highest threat of steadier showers and perhaps a
stray storm to occur at KRUT in the 10-17Z time frame where MVFR
conditions more likely. Winds remain light southerly, mainly
from 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...93